World Cup 2022

Casual conversation between friends. Anything goes (almost).
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DNS
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by DNS »

Giovanni wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:52 pm Japan beats Germany! 😳
What if Germany and Argentina don't advance? That's possible, with both teams currently at 0 points. :jawdrop:
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Kim O'Hara
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Kim O'Hara »

DNS wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:49 pm
Giovanni wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:52 pm Japan beats Germany! 😳
What if Germany and Argentina don't advance? That's possible, with both teams currently at 0 points. :jawdrop:
Then it will just prove again - and at the highest level of the game - my long-held conviction that soccer is a poorly-designed game. Why? Because scores are so low (always!) that results have a large random component.
This comes from basic probability theory. It doesn't matter which game you're playing, a score like 21-14 shows one side is pretty consistently better than the other. A score like 210-140 proves it more strongly. But a score like 3-2 is very poor evidence of skill, and 0-0 is no evidence at all.

:thinking:
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Bristollad
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Bristollad »

Kim O'Hara wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:41 am
DNS wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:49 pm
Giovanni wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:52 pm Japan beats Germany! 😳
What if Germany and Argentina don't advance? That's possible, with both teams currently at 0 points. :jawdrop:
Then it will just prove again - and at the highest level of the game - my long-held conviction that soccer is a poorly-designed game. Why? Because scores are so low (always!) that results have a large random component.
This comes from basic probability theory. It doesn't matter which game you're playing, a score like 21-14 shows one side is pretty consistently better than the other. A score like 210-140 proves it more strongly. But a score like 3-2 is very poor evidence of skill, and 0-0 is no evidence at all.

:thinking:
Kim
The rules aren’t designed to always deliver a win for the “best” team. They are designed to always allow an upset thereby increasing supporter engagement and money for the clubs/owners. Games that allow perfect forecasts of the results are badly designed imo, because it makes them boring.
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Agent Smith »

Which country'll win the soccer world cup you think?
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Re: World Cup 2022

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Bristollad wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:19 am
Kim O'Hara wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:41 am Then it will just prove again - and at the highest level of the game - my long-held conviction that soccer is a poorly-designed game. Why? Because scores are so low (always!) that results have a large random component.
This comes from basic probability theory. It doesn't matter which game you're playing, a score like 21-14 shows one side is pretty consistently better than the other. A score like 210-140 proves it more strongly. But a score like 3-2 is very poor evidence of skill, and 0-0 is no evidence at all.

:thinking:
Kim
The rules aren’t designed to always deliver a win for the “best” team. They are designed to always allow an upset thereby increasing supporter engagement and money for the clubs/owners. Games that allow perfect forecasts of the results are badly designed imo, because it makes them boring.
The NFL (American football) and NBA (basketball) have high scoring, but there are still upset results and good competitive games; it's not a perfect forecast scenario. Even LeBron James sometimes loses some games and didn't even make the playoffs this year (Los Angeles Lakers).

I have some ideas for making soccer with higher scoring, but the soccer-purists will never go for some radical changes. The sport has been around too long the way it is.
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Kim O'Hara »

DNS wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:34 am ... I have some ideas for making soccer with higher scoring, but the soccer-purists will never go for some radical changes. The sport has been around too long the way it is.
:thumbsup:

Simply making the goal mouth a bit wider might be enough of a change. But I agree, the chances of getting any change adopted are low.

Oddly, a somewhat similar change in an Olympic sport was adopted with no fuss at all for (IIRC) the Sydney Olympics and propagated quickly through the sport all the way down to school level. But that was table tennis, a game with virtually no money attached.

:coffee:
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Re: World Cup 2022

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Oddly, a somewhat similar change in an Olympic sport was adopted with no fuss at all for (IIRC) the Sydney Olympics and propagated quickly through the sport all the way down to school level. But that was table tennis, a game with virtually no money attached.
That's right, I remember that, where they increased the size of the ball, to slow it down a little.
Kim O'Hara wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:43 am Simply making the goal mouth a bit wider might be enough of a change. But I agree, the chances of getting any change adopted are low.
That, plus eliminating the offsides rule. So many great goals are wiped away due to the offsides rule.

And another more controversial idea I have is having NFL style goal posts over the goal where if the ball is kicked up and over the goal and between the goalposts, it counts as one point. A regular goal past the goalie counts as two points. The game could be very fast and require lots of substitutions due to players dribbling fast with the ball to get an opening at making the one point goal, which would be much easier than the two point goal past the goalie.

Image

But I know, that ain't gonna happen. :tongue:
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Re: World Cup 2022

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Anybody who complains about "low score" in football, as if it's a problem, neither understands nor appreciates football for what it is.

It's not about quantity of goals scored being what's most important. Yes of course goals are what decides the winner of the match. They're nice, and people likes them. But what's important is how you get there. It's about the flow of the game. How the football is being played. Different teams have different styles. It's about individual skill. It's about shots, it's about freekicks, it's about feints, dribbles, and technique. It's about bravery, it's about strategy, and it's about passion. It's about all of these things and so much more, all put together.

Arguing that a 3-2 score is very poor evidence of skill, is silly. The reason why either team cannot score the amount of goals you so apparently desire, is because it's difficult to score that many goals, since good players on both teams will prohibit this from ever happening. Only in exceptionally bad leagues, like leagues for little children, may you see teams moving back and forth with a goal scored on each attack. And nobody cares about that kind of football except the children playing it and their parents watching it.

In elite level football, seeing a team win 7-0 like today's Spain vs. Costa Rica match, isn't actually a sign that the match was great, due to the higher amount of goals scored than average. It's a sign that the losing team was terrible. And in such matches, the football played is usually a bit boring, since there's no resistance, no fighting.

On the other hand, Japan vs. Germany was a greatly entertaining match. In such a match, a 2-1 score is actually quite satisfactory. And if you take a look around, you'll see that the German reaction is that of disaster, shame, anger, frustration, and so on, whereas in Japan, it's talked about as a miracle, an incredible achievement, a euphoric result worthy of having a national holiday.

Trying to give an analysis of the perceived quality of football through probability theory is definitely peak STEM behavior. Do you use probability theory to determine how good a movie is also? What about music? Or literature? Or do you draw the line somewhere?

As for the suggestions shared here on how football can be changed "for the better", they're like someone who talks about how they really enjoys sushi, except sushi could be so much better if only you replaced the seafood with burger meat and buns, and the rice with cheese and onions.
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Giovanni »

Just as Norwegian says this shows no understanding of the game.
Low scores are not a failure of the attack, they are successes of the defence.Which are every bit as enjoyable.
Too little is made by TV commentators of the part played by the goalkeeper and backs and midfield.
So we have too high expectations of forwards.
The size of the goal mouth evolved over many years until it has reached the optimum size to test a very good and athletic goalkeeper. That’s a vital part of the Beautiful Game.
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Re: World Cup 2022

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Norwegian wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:15 am Anybody who complains about "low score" in football, as if it's a problem, neither understands nor appreciates football for what it is.

It's not about quantity of goals scored ...
:good:

Some of the most thrilling matches to watch result in goalless draws.

DNS, it sounds like you'd enjoy Aussie Rules football or Gaelic football :thumbs-up:

The offside rule is actually quite simple and encourages team strategies. The only problem with it is when you're playing a knock-about match with mates since you really need some independent linesmen to adjudicate it. So it's often dropped for these types of informal kickabouts.
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Re: World Cup 2022

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Norwegian wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:15 am Anybody who complains about "low score" in football, as if it's a problem, neither understands nor appreciates football for what it is.

(...)
I'm afraid, I have to agree.

Some of the 0:0 games lately were extremely exciting. On the other hand the 7:0 in Spain against Costa Rica was the top of the bore.

About Germany: soccer is suffering - one cannot repeat it enough. Japan performed a cool match.
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Kim O'Hara »

:jawdrop:

Okay, okay, okay ... I surrender!
Kim O'Hara wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:43 am
DNS wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:34 am ... I have some ideas for making soccer with higher scoring, but the soccer-purists will never go for some radical changes. The sport has been around too long the way it is.
:thumbsup:

...But I agree, the chances of getting any change adopted are low.
Not just low - zero.

Next time I post something like that I will wear asbestos gloves.

:tongue:
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Giovanni »

Remember Kim for many people football (soccer) is their second religion. 😀
In fact for many of my friends from my home town it is their FIRST religion..
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Re: World Cup 2022

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Kim O'Hara wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:03 pm :jawdrop:

Okay, okay, okay ... I surrender!
Me too! :lol:

Point taken, about how if it's changed too drastically it won't be football anymore.

I'll enjoy it as it is.
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Re: World Cup 2022

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Giovanni wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:53 pm Remember Kim for many people football (soccer) is their second religion. 😀
In fact for many of my friends from my home town it is their FIRST religion..
Yes, that's what I was thinking when I said the football purists won't go for any changes. You don't mess with someone's religion or passion.
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Re: World Cup 2022

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In my family, soccer is just an important part of day to day life. Our grandfathers played it, our parents and the Kids too. Nowadays the girlfriends play soccer and all kids perform hard FIFA matches on their computers.

When our kids were young, we spent 5 of 7 days aside the soccer field. It's not really a religion for us, (in times of grief soccer won't help), but it's an important part like hobbies often are.
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Re: World Cup 2022

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DNS wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:28 pm
Giovanni wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:53 pm Remember Kim for many people football (soccer) is their second religion. 😀
In fact for many of my friends from my home town it is their FIRST religion..
Yes, that's what I was thinking when I said the football purists won't go for any changes. You don't mess with someone's religion or passion.
I honestly completely lost my interest in football, at least the level where it used to be, many years ago. I can still watch it, such as certain world cup matches, and enjoy it, but it's not important to me anymore. For those who thinks this is really important, it's at a level of passion hard to understand for most people. I saw a documentary once about two Brazilian clubs, and their rivalry, and the fans of these clubs. And really, it was football for breakfast football for lunch football for dinner football for dessert football for evening meal, every single day. It was sheer insanity. Definitely a religion for them. It definitely included blood, sweat, and tears.

For me however, it was more of a sort of passionate hobby to share with friends, and we'd also play. I usually preferred offensive midfield / attacker position. My football "hero" was Romário from Brazil... :D
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The Guru is the Sangha too,
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Kai lord »

Japan vs Germany was the best match in this World cup so far, how many times do we get to see goalkeeper vs goalkeeper in such a direct fashion? :lol:

However, its still fade in comparison to Argentina vs France match back in 2018. Hope this world cup will have something similar soon.

Giovanni wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:53 pm Remember Kim for many people football (soccer) is their second religion. 😀
In fact for many of my friends from my home town it is their FIRST religion..
To those who like to claim that religions are the major source of irrationality and conflicts in our world, I often used football/soccer as a counter example. :lol:

The only world cup that I watched every single match is the 2006 one, since then, it has been declining steadily. All thanks to disillusionment.
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Giovanni »

👏
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Re: World Cup 2022

Post by Malcolm »

Norwegian wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:15 am
Trying to give an analysis of the perceived quality of football through probability theory is definitely peak STEM behavior. Do you use probability theory to determine how good a movie is also? What about music? Or literature? Or do you draw the line somewhere?

As for the suggestions shared here on how football can be changed "for the better", they're like someone who talks about how they really enjoys sushi, except sushi could be so much better if only you replaced the seafood with burger meat and buns, and the rice with cheese and onions.
:twothumbsup:

This is some good Dharmawheel...

Vases, canvas, bucklers, armies, forests, garlands, trees
houses, chariots, hostelries, and all such things
that common people designate dependent on their parts,
accept as such. For Buddha did not quarrel with the world!

—— Candrakīrti. MAV 6:166
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