Anti-vaxx sentiment in western sanghas

[Malcolm]

All eminently sensible. Yet here we are, over a century later, and people are still presenting the same sort of arguments that Jacobson offered at the turn of the last century.

Well, you know, "My body, my choice."

[Johnny Dangerous]

Dan, I am not sure where you are getting your information on the waning immunity/antibiotic resistance analogy, but I'm pretty sure that notion is off.

All of the vaccines are less efficacious against variants in terms of preventing infection, and that is surprising to no one, given that viruses mutate all the time, of course the common example is the flu.

This virus (according to Paul Offit, the last person I listened to on the subject, and certainly a reliable source) this virus looks like it mutates much less frequently, like a booster every two years or something might be realistic, if they are required. I have not heard anyone credible talk about creating "superviruses" because AFAIK that notion is BS, this virus is doing what every virus does and it is totally unsurprising that new variants are more contagious. Along a similar line, there are not many (maybe none?) real world examples as far as I know of a virus mutating into a deadly superbug as a result of vaccination.

BTW if you are worried about the virus mutating the sanest thing is to support vaccination to a point where we (maybe) reach something like herd immunity, the places these variants are developing tend to be where the virus can just rip through an unvaccinated population.

[Malcolm]

BTW if you are worried about the virus mutating the sanest thing is to support vaccination to a piton where we (maybe) reach something like herd immunity, the places these variants are developing tend to be where the virus can just rip through an unvaccinated population.

Dan is referring to the spread of MRSA, aka Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, which evolved in response to an overuse of antibiotics. But viruses do not easily develop resistance to vaccines, neither do bacteria:

There are some reasons to be optimistic that the coronavirus will not become resistant to vaccines. Several years ago, Dr. Kennedy and Dr. Read presented an analysis of the difference between resistance to drugs and vaccines. Neither bacteria nor viruses evolve resistance to vaccines as easily as they do to drugs, they wrote. Smallpox vaccine never lost its effectiveness, nor did the vaccines for measles or polio, despite years of use...

And there are numerous varieties of vaccines in development. The first two approaching approval in the United States both use a significant chunk of viral RNA to train the immune system. Other vaccines that are in development use the whole virus. And different vaccines deliver the virus or part of it in different ways, all of which could prompt a different immune response.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/27/scie ... tance.html

[Norwegian]

COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases: Data from the States

https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid- ... he-states/

Fauci fears that a variant worse than delta is coming, says COVID-19 cases may double

https://amp.mcclatchydc.com/news/corona ... 48688.html

[Johnny Dangerous]

Like I said, the virus mutating into new variants surprised no one, that's what they do.

Anyway, I also find the conversation on "waning immunity" premature anyway. So-called breakthrough infections mean some people can test positive for Covid who are vaccinated (the number is disputed at this point but from what I've seen the jury is leaning towards "not that common"), but this is not the same as somehow not having immunity because these people don't die or get hospitalized, minus a very small number, how infectious they are is still up in the air.

The point is, at this point in time Covid is essentially a preventable disease via the vaccines, that is settled science, and that is the most important part of the conversation we are having, to my mind.

[Dan74]

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-t ... ?r=US&IR=T

The vaccines are not themselves at fault, except that they are just not as effective anymore. It's the combination of a lot of vaccinated people, the virus circulating widely and the vaccinated people passing it on. Pretty much what is happening in a lot of places, including here.

The point may be that rather than a patchy vaccination effort here and there, there should've been a worldwide coordinated effort of a fast rollout and wide uptake. Perhaps unrealistic, but that would've worked a great deal better.

[Johnny Dangerous]

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-t ... ?r=US&IR=T

The vaccines are not themselves at fault, except that they are just not as effective anymore. It's the combination of a lot of vaccinated people, the virus circulating widely and the vaccinated people passing it on. Pretty much what is happening in a lot of places, including here.

The virus variants come from areas where few people were vaccinated, there is not even enough transmission among vaccinated people to do what you are saying. Most of the world is still not vaccinated anyway, how would the mutations come from spread among vaccinated populations? Are you claiming here that there is significant evidence that it is vaccinated people, and not unvaccinated ones responsible for most transmission? AFAIK that is 100% against the available evidence.

The point may be that rather than a patchy vaccination effort here and there, there should've been a worldwide coordinated effort of a fast rollout and wide uptake. Perhaps unrealistic, but that would've worked a great deal better.

AFAIK you are simply off here on your understanding of how the mutations happen, delta was first detected in India in 2020, not int he first world post mass vaccination. This is like saying that flu shots mutate because of the flu vaccine. AFAIK this understanding is simply off, viruses mutate, outside of vaccine-resistance scenarios.

AFAIK this sort of nightmare scenario where vaccines create vaccine resistant viruses is not historically a well known one, but if you have actual examples I'd love to see them.

[Malcolm]

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-t ... ?r=US&IR=T

The vaccines are not themselves at fault, except that they are just not as effective anymore.

Define "effective."

Perhaps unrealistic, but that would've worked a great deal better.

No shit.

[PadmaVonSamba]

Apparently, not everyone knows the science.

Mutation/evolution occurs by process of elimination. It’s essentially like playing 20 questions where all the wrong guesses are eliminated but one correct answer survives.

Antibiotics and antivirals may knock out 99.9% of the “bad guys” but the bad guys aren’t all exactly identical and a few survive. If they can’t successfully replicate and spread (from one person or animal to another) they will go completely extinct. Hurray!
But if .01% (and that can easily be a million bad guys) can survive and spread, then they are known as a “variant”.
So, it’s not that medicines “cause” mutations. It’s that whatever survives is able to spread and grow.

[Malcolm]

Mutation/evolution occurs by process of elimination. It’s essentially like playing 20 questions where all the wrong guesses are eliminated but one correct answer survives.

Antibiotics and antivirals may knock out 99.9% of the “bad guys” but the bad guys aren’t all exactly identical and a few survive. If they can’t successfully replicate and spread (from one person or animal to another) they will go completely extinct. Hurray!
But if .01% (and that can easily be a million bad guys) can survive and spread, then they are known as a “variant”.
So, it’s not that medicines “cause” mutations. It’s that whatever survives is able to spread and grow.

Apples and oranges. We are talking about vaccines, not drugs.

[Dan74]

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-t ... ?r=US&IR=T

The vaccines are not themselves at fault, except that they are just not as effective anymore. It's the combination of a lot of vaccinated people, the virus circulating widely and the vaccinated people passing it on. Pretty much what is happening in a lot of places, including here.

The virus variants come from areas where few people were vaccinated, there is not even enough transmission among vaccinated people to do what you are saying. Most of the world is still not vaccinated anyway, how would the mutations come from spread among vaccinated populations? Are you claiming here that there is significant evidence that it is vaccinated people, and not unvaccinated ones responsible for most transmission? AFAIK that is 100% against the available evidence.

The point may be that rather than a patchy vaccination effort here and there, there should've been a worldwide coordinated effort of a fast rollout and wide uptake. Perhaps unrealistic, but that would've worked a great deal better.

AFAIK you are simply off here on your understanding of how the mutations happen, delta was first detected in India in 2020, not int he first world post mass vaccination. This is like saying that flu shots mutate because of the flu vaccine. AFAIK this understanding is simply off, viruses mutate, outside of vaccine-resistance scenarios.

AFAIK this sort of nightmare scenario where vaccines create vaccine resistant viruses is not historically a well known one, but if you have actual examples I'd love to see them.

Yeah, I am likely off base, but let's think together for a moment. Delta emerged in India - a huge unvaccinated population where trillions of virus organisms were able to reproduce. A huge failure of international community, since experts were pleading to supply India with vaccines since last year. Now virus is raging through vaccinated populations in the US and elsewhere, where it is faced with the evolutionary pressure to develop a vaccine-resistant form, since out of all possible mutations, that one will reproduce much more. I think the article I linked says much the same thing. The trouble is that there is plenty of transmission among the unvaccinated, that's why CDC is recommending masks, even among the vaccinated, as far as I can tell. I hope no vaccine resistant variant emerges. I sure do. All I am saying is that it appears to me to be a risk.

But hey, if you guys would rather discuss this without me, I don't need to be here.

[Malcolm]

All I am saying is that it appears to me to be a risk.

And hence my point, we have a social right to institute "draconian" measures to stop this illness. Time for being pleasant to antivaxxers is just over. Period.

[Dan74]

https://theconversation.com/virus-evolu ... ped-149234

I guess the point they make which is most relevant is here:

It turns out that truly evolution-proof vaccines have three features. First, they are highly effective at suppressing viral replication. This stops further transmission. No replication, no transmission, no evolution.

Second, evolution-proof vaccines induce immune responses that attack several different parts of the microbe at the same time. It is easy for a single part of the virus to mutate and escape being targeted. But if many sites are attacked at once, immune escape requires many separate escape mutations to occur simultaneously, which is almost impossible. This has already been shown in the laboratory for SARS-CoV-2. There the virus rapidly evolved resistance to antibodies targeting a single site, but struggled to evolve resistance to a cocktail of antibodies each targeting multiple different sites.

Third, evolution-proof vaccines protect against all circulating strains, so that no others can fill the vacuum when competitors are removed.

It appears to me the mRNA vaccines, at least in relation to Delta, fail all three requirements.

[Dan74]

All I am saying is that it appears to me to be a risk.

And hence my point, we have a social right to institute "draconian" measures to stop this illness. Time for being pleasant to antivaxxers is just over. Period.

Malcolm, the time you were pleasant to people holding different views to you is yet to arrive, I think.

As for the actual policy or outreach to vaccine-hesitant people, that's another matter. I don't know what's going to work. Some of my friends here support mandatory vaccinations, but it doesn't look likely the Government will go that way. I don't think they even have such powers here. They are doing a lot to reach out and convince people though.

A lot of resistance that I hear about is really coming from conspiracy theory rabbit-holes, rather any sort of an informed hesitancy. All kinds of people fall into them, from the Christian fundies to people from the Eastern bloc fearful of the "looming dictatorship". We know a few from both kinds. They are neither necessarily bad people, nor morons, but closed to any argument to the contrary.

This kind of a mindset actually scares me more than the pandemic.

[FiveSkandhas]

All I am saying is that it appears to me to be a risk.

And hence my point, we have a social right to institute "draconian" measures to stop this illness. Time for being pleasant to antivaxxers is just over. Period.

That's a bit strong, sir.

In principle I agree with your stance...as stated earlier I have been cheerfully vaccinated and I still wear a mask whenever I go out of my home.

But talking about "draconian measures," dismissing those on the "other side" with single-word epitaphs, and so on...that sort of thing just makes people "dig in" and feel personally attacked by an irrational, angry enemy who may be advocating violent strong-arm tactics. It doesn't convince, it antagonizes and exacerbates division.

One catches more flies with honey than vinegar, no?

[Johnny Dangerous]

I agree Five Skandhas. I'm actually a little concerned with the authoritarian position of the more stuanchly pro-vaxx folks. Firstly because short of an actual legal mandate that all people get vaccinated (which would be political suicide), these sorts of measures tend to backfire in democratic societies, and simply get people to dig their heels in further. I am hoping that delta, employer and school mandates, etc. will be enough to get us to an acceptable place. I personally do not think we will ever wipe Covid out, and I think it will become endemic.

I strongly oppose things like vaccine passports (so does the ACLU and other civil liberties groups, or at least they only approve of them very conditionally) on the basis that the effect they have socially is worse than whatever benefit they claim to be creating. Similarly, since minorities lag behind in vaccine uptake (last I checked) such efforts are effectively a form of discrimination. I don't think these ideas will do well in America, should they be common enough to be legally challenged.

I'm all for it being mandated by the employers that choose to, etc. Having it mandated for healthcare, etc. is a no-brainer. Having it mandated in schools with younger kids is still up in the air mainly due to the risk/benefit analysis with kids, that is not settled yet.

Anyway, I am not personally willing to turn off democracy or related principles out of a desire for public safety, particularly when this is now a preventable disease, anyway. My understanding is that the concern about vaccine resistant mutants is mostly bullshit, and that the best course is to get as many vaccinated as possible and to figure whatever the "new normal" is as quickly as possible, in terms of letting normal life resume in whatever capacity it can. I think people are so focused on safety that they are missing what all of this is doing to the social fabric, and it ain't good.

[Malcolm]

All I am saying is that it appears to me to be a risk.

And hence my point, we have a social right to institute "draconian" measures to stop this illness. Time for being pleasant to antivaxxers is just over. Period.

That's a bit strong, sir.

The law is very clear.

[Malcolm]

Anyway, I am not personally willing to turn off democracy or related principles out of a desire for public safety, particularly when this is now a preventable disease, anyway.

Since when does the law have nothing to do with Democracy?

The 1905 SCOTUS decision is absolutely clear. Communities have the legal right to mandate vaccines for its citizens in public health emergencies.

[Malcolm]

We know a few from both kinds. They are neither necessarily bad people, nor morons, but closed to any argument to the contrary.

Which means at best they are morons...

[Johnny Dangerous]

Anyway, I am not personally willing to turn off democracy or related principles out of a desire for public safety, particularly when this is now a preventable disease, anyway.

Since when does the law have nothing to do with Democracy?

The 1905 SCOTUS decision is absolutely clear. Communities have the legal right to mandate vaccines for its citizens in public health emergencies.

Yeah no, I'm married to an attorney, it's not that simple.