Economics..yes,,they are this dim

[ronnewmexico]

Right wing corporate interests have won the day in america due to a manufactured debt crisis and extension of the debt ceiling.
Not to get to technical...the recent win lessens government especially social program government.
The stock market being no real entity but a thing that shows perception rightly fell 250 plus point yesterday and some more today.
While this is short term.. as the market always is... it speaks to the issue...less government fewer jobs and lesser GDP.

So straight to another recession american is now headed.
And the corporate program will not stop there. The next goal when this recession arises(as it will) is to use the recession as a reason to furthur lower taxes and thusly then lower social programs again. Social security and medicare are the programs that enable americans to spend more than they make.
So those next things to be targeted the american consumer will become more like the chinese consumer and save more and spend less on credit(china has no social security and little basic only health care).

Since 70% of the US economy GDP is related to internal consumer consumption....that will lead when it is implemented to stagnation and eventual depression.

So welcome to the next great depression folks...it be round the corner. A bit of time for this to work through but it should be on its way if things work as planned by midterm elections in 2014...

Yes...they are this dim...in love with their ideology of small government they will see their profits in america decline, and they the corporations.... will by focus relocate to places like Chine who are planning to institue social security to inspire domestic consumption..

So it goes on and on the world turns as they say.... a related link speaking to the immediate. The recession is not the depression. That depression happens when the right hits hard at social security and medicare and the perception becomes we must save to provide those things....which is a bit furthur down the road....http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-Economy-Running-at-Stall-bloomberg-4050163722.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode= .. by my take around 2014. QE3 is next government response wise which may even buoy the market for a bit but it will be quite temporary.

It is necessary to be aware of things economic as buddhist. As economy by far is major governmental mover in things like acts of destruction of environment and peoples....So compassionately intended we must study these things.

[adinatha]

All of this is part of the greater trend of credit deflation, and a bear market since the bull market top in 2007. The recovery from 2009 is just a countertrend wave, but we are not in an overall bull market. The bottom of this bear market has yet to be seen, but it will fall lower than the 2008 bottom of roughly 6000. People who follow market patterns predict the bottom will arrive sometime between 2012-2016, but could stretch out into 2020, due to inflationary measures taken by the Fed. At the end of this cycle the world will be very different economically, politically and socially. I look at this as a good time to hunker down and ride it out, practicing dharma, and when the dust settles it will be a good time to regroup society and reevaluate our priorities on a global scale.

[ronnewmexico]

Most US economic theoritst by my take overemphesize the importance of the american to things global.
What was is not what is nor what will be. Consequently I see not a global deflationary credit trend continuance but a american european one.
Which of course has negative implications for the world as whole but deminished in the influence of american and european upon the world.

But the world overall will do just fine, so corporations overall after a reset of priority and focus will do just fine.
No 30's depression but a american depression in whch they see a steady slow but certain erosion of comparitive value.
Europe I suspect will go on a county by country basis depending upon economy. Common currency but I could well see a two currency split later down the road.

Government debt necessitates a inflationary trend. Credit constriction above and beyond by corporate agent...I just don't see happening.
Credit constriction as I have mentioned by the actuality of the circumstance of having to really save as opposed to spend as old age is no longer supported by government is the form of constriction I see.
Corporate influence upon government in america due to supreme court decision of recent is now greatly expanded.
Corporations are sitting on hugh troves of cash just waiting to be spent. Coupled with the decision this is a perfect storm of corporate influcence.
Obama is courting the corporate with such in mind. AS such the politic of 2012 and 2014 will be virtually all representative of corporate influence, regardless of party. Lip service only to popular intent.
Way beyond what we have seen in the past in america. Obama, a democrat, taking steps to eliminate social security and medicare..speaks to the reality of the future of american politics.

That said...american will have those programs constricted seemingly. So will the perception of savings become in favor.
Certainly we are not now anywhere near the spend more than you earn days of 07 but comparitively speaking we have seen a relatively low actual credit constriction take place, credit actually compared to incomes. Americans now save a bit but a tiny bit. Used to be they were to the negative a tiny bit.
Forced to save by such circumstance the playing field can and will probably shift dramatically. Chinese savings rates of individuals check it out....
If americans saved to that level....the economy would immediately go into severe depression, and stay there...nothing like that ever being seen in their history. Such a change in consumptive pattern consumption approximating 70% internally of GDP. American will not approximate the chinese rate but a significant change in actual credit consumption will arise. A 10 or 20% eventual dip I could see. That is doom and gloom of a level never seen before in the americas.

AS to now quantitive easing 3 will shortly be on the table...the market will rise when it gets wind of that...certainly the question only now is when.
But temporary is of course that solution.
Long long term corporations will in focus leave the american. Third world priority they will become. The horizons being asian.

I'm guessing 2014 but of course it is a guess. That could change of course...a real third party or some unexpected circumstance..but as things go.

I can't see a gllobal shift in priority or way of doing things unless asia went. I supect they will not. So sustained by their lifeblood profits and income the corporate beast that is this monster will not devolve.
I could see things getting very strange politically in the US with the continuation of unyielding corporate influence and a consequent totally uneducated to things..... public. It speaks of decision made wrongly more than anything. Knowing not any facts enought to make any real good decisions.
Till the media is no longer under corporate control I can't see any real change happening. And since people must make that change they being totally uniinformed to things don't know to make that change.

[adinatha]

North America and Europe are the purchasers of global production. When the crash sinks in, global trade with stall. The amount of money tied up in credit default swaps is staggering, in the hundreds of trillions. The amount of inflation necessary to counter the deflation of the credit bubble would have to be hyperinflation. Of course, central banks won't do that, so deflation is coming. Global central banks are trying to orchestrate a soft landing. Soft or sharp, either way, the global trend is way down.

[tummo]

why is this topic on this forum?

[adinatha]

why is this topic on this forum?

Ron said because he feels the economic situation is harmful for people and something we as buddhists should understand and respond compassionately.

[Indrajala]

why is this topic on this forum?

I don't see any issue with discussing present day economics. It affects us all and what goes on in economics always influences both war and charity alike.

[Indrajala]

So welcome to the next great depression folks...it be round the corner. A bit of time for this to work through but it should be on its way if things work as planned by midterm elections in 2014...

What happened after the last Great Depression? War.

Most western nations are presently in a state of war, though it is not formal. Bombing a foreign country is done for "humanitarian reasons" with no act of war actually being declared.

In any case, a big one will likely erupt sometime this decade.

[ronnewmexico]

The good thing about economic crisis as I see it(perhaps the only good)....it will stop eventually the military. They are simply running out of money to keep it going as big as it is. Fight it tooth and nail will the complex but in the end they just don't have the money. To much of GDP in america is going to ironically and curiously....health care. They have set up the most imaginable inefficient system know to humanity and it is just siphoneing off to much money to that one thing.

So it will be a fight of opposeing corporate interest humorusly and ironically...the health lobby as opposed to the military lobby....the inside money in this bet is on the healthcare lobby....the poor poor military lobby for all their corruption and payoffs ....they are going to be a bit...left out in the cold.

So one good thing happens.

[adinatha]

The military-industrial-government--lending-taxing-complex is a money making machine. The problem with this set-up is if the king possesses all the coin, then he can't tax anyone and can't get any richer, unless he breaks out the whip and puts everyone to work. Who would agree to this? Well, if you owe a debt to the king... How can the king make sure you never pay that back? Mark the debt when gold prices were the highest in history. Then when your work is worth only a few cents a day, it will take eons to pay off one million.

At a very deep level, our economics are a cruel joke. It is possible to have a fair money system. It must be separated out from the current complex. How do we fire the warriors without war, when the lenders will supply them with ample money to manufacture super weapons? I've thought about this often, and the best thing I can think of is self-starvation or close to it. People should pare down their consumption to what is necessary to keep the vitals going at a barely functioning level. Dharma practice helps this, because when you have no attachment the body actually requires far less to stay healthy. The upside to an economic collapse under these circumstances is unremitting bliss.

[Indrajala]

The military-industrial-government--lending-taxing-complex is a money making machine. The problem with this set-up is if the king possesses all the coin, then he can't tax anyone and can't get any richer, unless he breaks out the whip and puts everyone to work. Who would agree to this? Well, if you owe a debt to the king... How can the king make sure you never pay that back? Mark the debt when gold prices were the highest in history. Then when your work is worth only a few cents a day, it will take eons to pay off one million.

At a very deep level, our economics are a cruel joke. It is possible to have a fair money system. It must be separated out from the current complex. How do we fire the warriors without war, when the lenders will supply them with ample money to manufacture super weapons? I've thought about this often, and the best thing I can think of is self-starvation or close to it. People should pare down their consumption to what is necessary to keep the vitals going at a barely functioning level. Dharma practice helps this, because when you have no attachment the body actually requires far less to stay healthy. The upside to an economic collapse under these circumstances is unremitting bliss.

The whole system will collapse sooner or later.

Worldly pursuits only end up in suffering, so best to strike the root of the problem. Don't go into debt, don't own anything worth appropriating and don't pursue worldly aims like career, home ownership, wealth and so on.

If you're already in debt consider that the future prospects of samsara are far more terrifying than anything a credit agency can do to you.

[ronnewmexico]

So deflation as means...I actually had not considered that in full but will.

Superficially i am inclined against, as to debt..... really governments just inflate out of it. Europe having that big big problem as with common currency they cannot...so I envision eventually a two currency solution(long term).

AS long term corporate strategy sounds good... but by my experience they are that stupid far to stupid to concieve such a thing.

But I will not say not as I have not considered it fully but will now.
Debt is bondage...no doubt about it...I will not hold it ever.
I likewise abscribe to a minimilist theory of personal consumption but not to the extent described.

[adinatha]

The military-industrial-government--lending-taxing-complex is a money making machine. The problem with this set-up is if the king possesses all the coin, then he can't tax anyone and can't get any richer, unless he breaks out the whip and puts everyone to work. Who would agree to this? Well, if you owe a debt to the king... How can the king make sure you never pay that back? Mark the debt when gold prices were the highest in history. Then when your work is worth only a few cents a day, it will take eons to pay off one million.

At a very deep level, our economics are a cruel joke. It is possible to have a fair money system. It must be separated out from the current complex. How do we fire the warriors without war, when the lenders will supply them with ample money to manufacture super weapons? I've thought about this often, and the best thing I can think of is self-starvation or close to it. People should pare down their consumption to what is necessary to keep the vitals going at a barely functioning level. Dharma practice helps this, because when you have no attachment the body actually requires far less to stay healthy. The upside to an economic collapse under these circumstances is unremitting bliss.

The whole system will collapse sooner or later.

Worldly pursuits only end up in suffering, so best to strike the root of the problem. Don't go into debt, don't own anything worth appropriating and don't pursue worldly aims like career, home ownership, wealth and so on.

If you're already in debt consider that the future prospects of samsara are far more terrifying than anything a credit agency can do to you.

yup

[ronnewmexico]

Better bet against that.

If credit stops as it nearly did adjacent to the collapse, shipping moving as a function of credit stops. Ships stoppped briefly being loaded as no letters of credit were being issued by the banks.

So that means everywhere would occur mass starvation. Then as response government moving things at the point of a gun...or totalitarianism. Every government as response would have to become essentially a totalitarian regime to survive and stop the starvation....the implications are obvious.

The consequences of that are astounding.
All perceptions of wealth would then become a variant of your relaionship with those that by force move the things....your relationship to the military would be essentailly how that thing would go....your personal relationship...needless to say us common folk buddhists and such would be hard pressed in that environment.

[Indrajala]

I remember when I was a kid in my home city of Winnipeg in Canada a house could be purchased for under $50,000, sometimes under $30,000, so even with a yearly income of even $20,000 an individual could own property in no short time if they worked at it. Now those same houses can be sold for $250,000, meanwhile average incomes have not increased so much. It used to be the case that you could be an average working class joe stocking shelves and manage to own a decent home, which is completely impossible now.

Actually this is one difference that is often misunderstood between the generations. Men and women in their twenties are staying at home rather than moving out (into rather expensive rental properties) and not buying property while the older baby boomer generation wonders why these lazy kids don't move out and buy a house already. In the good old days it could be easily done. My friends in the west (and this applies to much of Asia now, too) have lamented they face pressures from their parents and relatives, but don't have the realistic means to really setup a standard nuclear family in a house without going into horrendous debt. Or they simply can't get suitable employment to even apply for such loans.

Unless there are some strong socialist policies that are enacted, I doubt things will change much. The life schedule of my generation will be radically different from that of the baby boomers'. I can see this leading to a lot of disaffected youth which the system have failed. You'll end up with a lot of angry people.

The NINJA generation: no income, no jobs or assets.

Also, when you got nothing to lose, you lose it.

[ronnewmexico]

Canada by qualification of income disparity amongst groups is relatively good.imagine how it is in the america where the income disparity equals that of china.....it is quite bad. Housing prices have now depreciated significantly and there appears no end in sight.

Inflation helps debtors... generally Deflation hurt debtors. Roll over or redebting........... however corporately solves that problem.
Credit cards are generally a form of redebting...a active cycle of continuous redebting. Debt repayment rate and percentage of interest always instantaneously readjustable, when beyond the introductory offers .
Suchly they have them bound.

[adinatha]

Basically our situation is do dharma or go mad. I was talking to a retired university professor who owns a house in San Francisco, Paris and the Virgin Islands, very big houses. He taught sociology. I was like, "make money not love?" Full-blown communism if not just socialism will have to be revisted. Marx predicted that communism would be preceded by a sort of technological apex of the capitalist regime. So then, previous communist regimes were premature. If you believe the futurists, they predict a techno apex this century, "the singularity." If what they are saying is so, the future will be beyond anything we can imagine now.

[Indrajala]

Basically our situation is do dharma or go mad. I was talking to a retired university professor who owns a house in San Francisco, Paris and the Virgin Islands, very big houses. He taught sociology. I was like, "make money not love?" Full-blown communism if not just socialism will have to be revisted. Marx predicted that communism would be preceded by a sort of technological apex of the capitalist regime. So then, previous communist regimes were premature. If you believe the futurists, they predict a techno apex this century, "the singularity." If what they are saying is so, the future will be beyond anything we can imagine now.

I think more realistically the environment will collapse and severe weather coupled with famine and shortages of potable water will become the norm. Add into that peak oil and depleted resources. I foresee a rise in state authoritarianism as things go from bad to worse. Marx wasn't aware human activity could literally break the planet.

For those in the wealthy developed world the hardest part will be realizing that our sense of entitlement is meaningless in times of extreme hardship. It will come as a shock to a lot of people when they realize the good life in the suburbs or a life of consumerism have become impossible. For several generations people have been living such lifestyles and might even be willing to turn to violence in a bold but utterly doomed to failure attempt at preserving their lifestyles.

The odd thing is that a lot of people understand this, but few are acting accordingly or even think it will happen. We've been able to gamble in previous decades, especially in N.America, that anything bad in the world will not really affect us so much if we ignore it (for example the Cold War). I think this mindset is carrying over into the present and will continue into the future -- a lot of people think yes, there may be some problems up ahead, but technology or the government will take care of it and while you might read about it in the news, it really won't directly affect you, so you don't really need to do anything about it.

People still have kids, buy homes, live out the consumer lifestyle and plan for a retirement, even if they say they think the world is facing biblical catastrophes in the coming years.

[adinatha]

Yeah people think its like the sun going supernova. It will definitely happen, but not in our lifetimes. People are gambling that economic collapse will not happen in our lifetimes or even in their grandchildren's lifetimes, that the powers that be will fend it off and that tech progress will catch up and save us. It is not an unreasonable sort of optimism, because exactly when shit meets fan is unpredictable. Anyway, we dharma people know that it will meet fan this or next life, so we make provisions now.

[Indrajala]

Yeah people think its like the sun going supernova. It will definitely happen, but not in our lifetimes. People are gambling that economic collapse will not happen in our lifetimes or even in their grandchildren's lifetimes, that the powers that be will fend it off and that tech progress will catch up and save us. It is not an unreasonable sort of optimism, because exactly when shit meets fan is unpredictable. Anyway, we dharma people know that it will meet fan this or next life, so we make provisions now.

I'm gambling it happens within the next ten to twenty years. Economic collapse is one thing, but environmental catastrophes will be far worse, and all of this will be fuel for endless wars. I don't think it'll be the end of the world, but human life expectancy will certainly decrease as it is predicted in scriptures both Buddhist and Hindu.

On the bright side, all these horrible experiences will foster great compassion and be an opportunity for serious on-the-ground bodhisattva training.