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Extreme is the New Normal - Page 11 - Dhamma Wheel

Extreme is the New Normal

Casual discussion amongst spiritual friends.
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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Sat Feb 19, 2011 12:20 am


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octathlon
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby octathlon » Sat Feb 19, 2011 1:00 am


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andre9999
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby andre9999 » Sat Feb 19, 2011 12:13 pm


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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:15 pm

"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:26 pm

Last edited by Alex123 on Sat Feb 19, 2011 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

Justsit
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Justsit » Sat Feb 19, 2011 5:38 pm

Actually, that's two questions....

1. what proof is there that todays climate change is significantly due to humans ?

and

2. what proof is there that todays climate change poses real danger?

Perhaps these should be addressed separately??

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octathlon
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby octathlon » Sat Feb 19, 2011 6:06 pm

Alex,
To figure out whether the global warming that is occurring is caused by, worsened by, or unrelated to human activity is kind of like figuring out whether smoking contributes to lung disease, cardiovascular disease, etc. In other words, if a smoker gets lung cancer or has a heart attack, you can't say for sure that in that case it was caused by their smoking, or if would have happened anyway but maybe was worse or happened sooner because of it, or if it was unrelated. You can't conclude anything from individual cases of disease (or individual weather events).

Instead, you have to do studies and statistical analysis on a lot of complicated data like number of cancers and other diseases in smoking and non-smoking populations, and you have to try and control for other contributing factors like diet, genetics, other environmental factors like radon. That's why there used to be so much controversy about dangers of smoking. It takes a long time to collect sufficient data and do rigorous analysis to prove it, especially when profit-making enterprises have a vested interest in dismissing the idea. Eventually enough studies were done and reviewed until finally it was accepted that smoking really is harmful.

I think that's a pretty good parallel with the study of global warming/climate change that has been going on for the last few decades. The question of how much human activity contributes to it has to be estimated by statistical analysis that corrects for other contributing factors. And we don't have a "control planet". The subject is even more politically charged than smoking was, and it's probably already too late by now to reverse the human contribution in time to help much (see for example). But I think we should be able to agree that smoking isn't good for us and neither is polluting our environment, can't we?

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octathlon
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby octathlon » Sat Feb 19, 2011 6:13 pm


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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sat Feb 19, 2011 6:26 pm

Hello Octathlon,

The thing about Climate change is that it was happening for 4.5 billion of years before human's industrial activity. If an explanation is sufficient to explain something (such as climate change), there is no need to complicate it further. If nature by itself could change climate as it did, it is not required that some new external cause plays any or significant part in changing the climate.


The problem is that AGW's solutions are not as harmless as they seem. First of all, additional taxes (Carbon tax) is not what I think is good for us.

Bio-fuels have drawbacks as well. The food that could have been used to feed people (or animals) could be converted to car fuel. This would reduce food supply, and drive the prices up. What about all the poor people who can barely afford food? Now that is something to worry about.

What if humans prepare for warmer climate (build houses suitable for warmth and not arctic weather) and we get another ice age instead? People could freeze to death, or at least heating bills would really go up without properly insulated houses.

Any human change (if they could really) could easily be reversed by nature. Why add additional taxes, and add inconviniences to humans, if nature could always get a last say in any climate change?



The argument that humans burn CO2, and CO2 causes GW is flawed:


...CO2 lags an average of about 800 years behind the temperature changes-- confirming that CO2 is not the cause of the temperature increases. One thing is certain-- earth's climate has been warming and cooling on it's own for at least the last 400,000 years, as the data below show. At year 18,000 and counting in our current interglacial vacation from the Ice Age, we may be due-- some say overdue-- for return to another icehouse climate!
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/last_400k_yrs.html
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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octathlon
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby octathlon » Sat Feb 19, 2011 6:58 pm


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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sat Feb 19, 2011 7:58 pm

"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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octathlon
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby octathlon » Sat Feb 19, 2011 8:33 pm

OK, so your final position is that because climate change can and does happen naturally, you therefore will not consider any possibility that human activity could be a contributing factor to the current warming trend, no matter what evidence may be found through all the studies and analysis I described earlier. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sat Feb 19, 2011 9:03 pm

"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Sun Feb 20, 2011 5:33 am

Hi, Alex,
In one more attempt to show you why we don't take much notice of some of your sources, I took one of your favourite graphs (you have uploaded it several times, so you must like it) and added a red rectangle (near the right hand end, where it belongs) to which is (as close as I can make it) 6 million years wide. It therefore represents the period since our evolutionary line split from that of all the other apes - not just the time since our ancestors learned to walk on two feet, not just the time since they discovered fire, waaaay longer than the time since they first built houses.
Here it is. I had to stretch the image a bit from side to side so that you can see the red rectangle clearly. I'm sorry that makes the text a bit hard to read, but you can refer to your own copy if you need to.

co2AlexMY long.jpg
co2AlexMY long.jpg (356.19 KiB) Viewed 737 times


Two questions:
1. Where did those sudden, catastrophic, changes go?
2. Can you add, at the same horizontal scale, a rectangle showing the time since the Egyptians built the pyramids?
:namaste:
Kim

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:52 am

If you want to get more technical (about the OP, not AGW in general), here is a nice article I have just come across.
:namaste:
Kim

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:52 pm

Attachments
co22.jpg
co22.jpg (4.98 KiB) Viewed 726 times
co2Alex.JPG
co2Alex.JPG (59.49 KiB) Viewed 726 times
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Mon Feb 21, 2011 12:07 am

Kim, all,

In short:
In order to say that modern climate is more extreme than usual, we need to compare it to the climate as it has been for at least hundreds of million of years. Then based on that comparison, and if today's weather is more extreme, we could say that climate now is more extreme then before.

Comparing current climate with the past 100 years is NOT sufficient amount of data. The earth existed for 4.5 billion of years. Not 100 years. If we are comparing climate itself, lets use full data.

I have this data. If someone has better data on the significant amount of time (100s of millions of years), please post it.




co2AlexMillionsYears.JPG
co2AlexMillionsYears.JPG (62.02 KiB) Viewed 725 times
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:41 am

Alex,
My last post was another attempt to get you to see for yourself that the data you keep pushing at us is misleading because it is irrelevant. If I want to go from my house to the nearest coffee shop, a map of the whole world is useless. If we want to understand what is happening to the climate we depend on, your 600 million year graph is useless. What matters to us is not the differences and similarities over 600 000 000 years. Not even the differences over 600 000 years. The climate for most of earth's history did not and could not support human life. The climate for all except the last 1000 years did not accommodate coastal cities. The climate for all except the last 100 years did not form the essential preconditions for global agriculture supporting several billion people.
If we want to know whether the climate in the next hundred years can continue to support our civilisation, we need to know how it is changing from what actually does support our civilisation.
On your two favourite graphs, the last 100 years is only one or two pixels wide and you can't see anything that's useful. The last little snippet of your red/blue graph is a case in point:
co22.jpg
co22.jpg (4.98 KiB) Viewed 718 times

That blue line heading straight up at the extreme right of the graph is the key to the whole problem - and you can barely see it, let alone see its relationship to the red line, which is the other half of the problem.
When you acknowledge what I'm saying, we can take the next step.
:namaste:
Kim

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:35 pm

"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Tue Feb 22, 2011 9:33 pm



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