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Extreme is the New Normal - Page 9 - Dhamma Wheel

Extreme is the New Normal

Casual discussion amongst spiritual friends.
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octathlon
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby octathlon » Thu Jan 27, 2011 12:30 am


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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Thu Jan 27, 2011 12:53 am


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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Thu Jan 27, 2011 12:54 am


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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 3:26 pm

"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:57 pm


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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Thu Jan 27, 2011 11:13 pm

Kim,

You are right that the time that homo sapiens were on this planet is near zero compared to 4.5 billion years this planet existed. Climate change was happening for billions of years prior to human-made-factories. Not only that, but even today the nature affects almost 99.999% (if not 100%) of the climate.

So nature has advantage of times and strength (quantity and quality) when it comes to climate change.


I find it interesting how climatologists can't predict with 100% accuracy about the amount of rain that will happen two weeks from now in a certain city, yet are perfectly fine about talking and predicting great global cataclysms caused by global temperature rising few degrees...


BTW,
The glaciers that are actually GROWING, not shrinking: Climate change not as catastrophic as scientists first thought
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... hange.html


With best wishes,

Alex
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Fri Jan 28, 2011 12:12 am


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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 2:43 am

Hello Kim,


I believe that climate changes in cycles. There are hot periods and cold periods. We happen to be in a cold period, in fact, one of the coldest the earth had in its long history. IMHO it is only natural that at some point the temperatures may increase, and some more ice would melt. As I've said before, even in fairly recent geological eras there have been MUCH higher temperatures. So much so that in Paleocene, palm trees grew in Greenland (which now has an arctic rather than hot desert like climate).


With best wishes,
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Fri Jan 28, 2011 7:21 am


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Hanzze
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Hanzze » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:09 am

_/\_
Last edited by Hanzze on Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Just that! *smile*


BUT! it is important to become a real Buddhist first. Like Punna did: Nate sante baram sokham _()_

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:04 pm

"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:11 pm

Hello Kim, all,



I am saddened that what I've seen Al Gore (and others) do is to take a small scale graph and try to scare us when it shows what they want it to show.


ex:
Image

Looks scary, right?

But if we take a wider look, and put it into perspective - we see that it is not scary at all


Image

That changes the whole picture! Such a little cut out (deliberate selection of what they want us to see) can easily mislead and scare us. When such kinds of selective proofs, it taints the other arguments that they propose (which were rebutted many times by non-politically aligned climatologists).

When seeing graph such as above, the case is closed on CO2. Variations of CO2 and temperatures have been going on for a long time and without neanderthals driving cars. If that kind of cycles could occur before, they could occur now. No need to complicate the matter by speculating that humans have anything to do. Occams razor may be of help here. Don't add unnecessary factors when lesser factors can explain everything. Don't overlook the context of change in climate. 350 to 390 is tiny compared to CO2 going from 4,500 to 7,000ppm of CO2 - WITHOUT homo sapiens. So if the climate change, which was happening for past 4.5 billion of years, can be explained without humans - then so is the modern change.
Last edited by Alex123 on Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Fri Jan 28, 2011 11:15 pm

"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Kim OHara
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Kim OHara » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:49 am


alan
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby alan » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:50 am

This has become pathetic.
I am with Kim--there is a point where you just have to ignore people who are lost in confusion and ideology.

I sometimes wonder how issue would be discussed today if it had initially been a prominent conservative who originally chose to elevate it in the public discourse. What if, let's just imagine, G.H.W. Bush had looked at the science 20 years ago and decided to take up the cause of spreading the word, and Al Gore remained silent. How would the data be perceived today among the know-nothing conservative set?

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:20 am

Last edited by Alex123 on Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Alex123
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Alex123 » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:23 am

For those who like to think



By Paul Krismanits


Here's a few things most people don't know, because most people like to get their news from propaganda movies which win Oscars (*achem* "An Inconvenient Truth"). So here's some facts I bet Al Gore and your science teacher didn't teach:

1. Contrary to the popular belief that glaciers all over the world are melting, in some places they are actually GROWING. In Iceland and Greenland, the first half of the twentieth century was warmer than the second half. In Iceland, most glaciers lost mass after 1930 because temperatures temporarily rose by .6 degrees Celsius. But since then the climate has gotten colder, and since 1970 the glaciers have been growing. Including eleven glaciers which are surging in size.
(P. Chylek, et al. 2004, "Global Warming and the Greenland ice sheet," Climate Change 63, 210-21)

2. Contrary to popular belief, Antarctica is NOT melting. Only the Antarctic peninsula (a relatively small portion of the continent) is melting, but the continent as a whole is getting colder and the ice is growing thicker. In fact:
a. From 1986 to 2000 central Antarctic valleys cooled .7 degrees Celsius per decade with serious ecosystem damage from the cold.
(Doran, P.T., Priscu, J.C. Lyons, W.B. Walsh, J.E., Fountain, A.G. McKnight, D.M. Moorhead, D.L. Virginia, R.A. Wall, D.H. Clow, G.D. Fritsen, C.H. Mckay, C.P. and Parson, A.N., 2002, "Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response," Nature, 415: 517-20)
b. Side-looking radar measurements show West Antarctica ice is increasing at 26.8 gigatons/yr. Reversing the melting trend of the last 6000 years.
(Joughlin, I., and Tulaczyk, S., 2002, "Positive mass balance of the Ross Ice Streams, West Antarctica," Science 295: 476-80)
c. Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979.
(Liu, J., Curry, J.A., and Martinson, D.G., 2004, "Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability," Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.1029/2003 GLO18732)
d. The greater part of Antarctica experiences a longer sea-ice season, lasting 21 days longer than it did in 1979.
(Parkinson, C.L. 2002, "Trends in the length of the southern Ocean sea-ice season, 1979-99," Annals of Glaciology 34: 435-40)

3. The arrival of global warming was announced in 1988 dramatically by James Hansen, a prominent climatologist. He predicted temperatures would rise by .35 degrees Celsius over the next ten years. The actual increase was .11 degrees Celsius (that's less than 1/10 of a degree folks). After ten years Hansen claimed that the forces which govern climate changes are so poorly understood that long-term prediction is impossible. Quote, "The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change." His prediction was off by over 300 PERCENT, proving that scientists don't know what they're talking about when it comes to predictions in this field.
(James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Ina Tegen, and Elaine Matthews, "Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95 [October 1998] - 12753-58]

4. More CO2 in the air actually STIMULATES plant growth.

5. Deserts in Africa are SHRINKING. (Fred Pearce, "Africans go back to the land as plants reclaim the desert," New Scientist 175, 21 September 2002, pp. 4-5)

6. A presumed effect of global warming is that it will increase the rate of emergence of new diseases. Including bringing back diseases like malaria in a big way. In fact, the rate of emerging diseases has not increased since 1960. (Paul Reiter, et al, "Global Warming and malaria: a call for accuracy," Lancet, 4, no. 1 [June 2004]

7. There are around 160,000 glaciers in the world. Only about 67,000 have been inventoried, and only a few studied with any care. There is mass balance data extending five years or more for ONLY 79 GLACIERS IN THE ENTIRE WORLD. No one knows whether they're all melting, or if even most of them are.
(H. Kieffer, et al., 2000, "New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets," EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 81: 265, 270-71. Also R.J. Braithwaite and Y. Zhang, "Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and climate," Journal of Glaciology 45 [2000]: 456-62)

8. The belief that Mt. Kilimanjaro is melting because of global warming is false. It has been melting since the 1800s, before "global warming." There is also no recorded warming trend at the altitude of the Kilimanjaro glacier. It is melting because of deforestation at its base which has taken away the moist air blowing upward. (Betsy Mason, "African Ice Under Wraps," Nature, 24, November 2003. Also Kaser, et al., "Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: Observations and facts," International Journal of Climatology 24: [2004]: 329-39)

9. Sea levels are not rising any faster due to global warming. For the last 6,000 years the sea level has been rising at the rate of 10 to 20 centimeters (4 to 8 inches) every hundred years. There is no recorded proof that they have risen faster. Computer models which claim to have proven otherwise have been proven inaccurate. In fact, the northern Pacific has been measured as rising, but the southern Pacific has fallen by several millimeters in recent years. . "Over the last century, global sea-level change has typically been estimated from tide gauge measurements by long-term averaging...")

10. Even if global warming was happening and causing more El Nino weather events, the effects would actually be positive. In 1998 El Ninos direct losses caused in the U.S. were about $4 billion, and the benefits were worth approximately $19 billion. (Stanley A. Changnon, 1999: "Impacts of 1997-98 El Nino-Generated Weather in the United States," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, no. 9 - pp. 1819-28]

11. The Kyoto Agreement is absolutely worthless and will only result in being harmful to world economies. The predicted effect of Kyoto would be to reduce warming by .04 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. That's the effect if the U.S. DID sign it. (Nature, 22 [October, 2003]: 395-741, stated, with Russia signed on, temperature affected would be -.02 Celsius by 2050.)

12. The modern theory of global warming is based upon the fact that the temperature has been rising steadily for the past 100 years due to rising CO2 and other emissions. The fact is, around 1880 (the beginning of the temperature rise) was actually the end of what many scientists call the "mini-ice age." Where, for about 400 years, the earth had cooled. The theory also presupposes that the greatest change occurred during the height of industrialization (roughly the 1940s-1970s). However, temperature graphs show that:
a. From 1940-1970 CO2 rose moderately yet the earth's temperature actually cooled.
b. The temperature in the United States peaked in the mid-1930s, cooled for about 60 years, and now has risen slightly again, although still not as much as it was in the 30s.
These graphs can be found at http://www.giss.nasa.gov.

More of these graphs show that, while large urban areas have shown mild increases in temperature, many rural areas have actually cooled in the past 150-200 years. This is true globally. One specific example is New York City, which has increased in temperature about 4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1822, yet Albany, which is just north of New York City, has actually cooled a degree in the past 180 years. This shows no actual climate change as they are so close together.

These are just some of the facts people, from real scientists who do REAL research. These facts are not from politicians or actors. Whether the majority of scientists believe in it or not, there simply is not enough evidence to show that global warming is a threat in any way. Also, remember that it is merely a THEORY, and there are very little facts supporting it.
http://www.helium.com/items/540228-glob ... real-truth
"Life is a struggle. Life will throw curveballs at you, it will humble you, it will attempt to break you down. And just when you think things are starting to look up, life will smack you back down with ruthless indifference..."

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Hanzze
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby Hanzze » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:34 am

_/\_
Last edited by Hanzze on Wed Feb 02, 2011 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Just that! *smile*


BUT! it is important to become a real Buddhist first. Like Punna did: Nate sante baram sokham _()_

alan
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Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 12:14 am
Location: Miramar beach, Fl.

Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby alan » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:42 am

On one hand, it is kind of perversely interesting to see how long this can last. On the other, my complete lack of respect for a certain member makes me want to cry out to put this thread out of our collective misery.
Guess it's like that time you just kept wiggling the painful tooth to see if it still hurts.

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octathlon
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Re: Extreme is the New Normal

Postby octathlon » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:52 am



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