Climate Change: We're Doomed

Alleviating worldly suffering along the way.

Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Zhen Li » Wed Feb 05, 2014 1:49 am

If you want to replace fossil fuels, it's not a question of simply replacing them. You also need to either reduce human populations to a small fraction of what they are now, or improve energy efficiency of every appliance hundreds of times what they are now.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby AlexanderS » Wed Feb 05, 2014 7:19 pm

There is also the problem with wind energy that it is highly unreliable. When the wind doesn't blow there is no energy is produced!
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Malcolm » Wed Feb 05, 2014 7:25 pm

AlexanderS wrote:There is also the problem with wind energy that it is highly unreliable. When the wind doesn't blow there is no energy is produced!



Yes, and when it blows too strongly, the turbine must be locked.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby AlexanderS » Wed Feb 05, 2014 7:34 pm

My father is a quite respected energy expert and a few years ago him and his colleagues produced a report that debunks the myth that Denmark gets 20% of its energy supply from windmills. The report showed quite clearly that Denmark gets 10% of its energy supply from wind. The hostility he has been met with from politicians and energy enthusiasts is quite comical... and scary. Also of course the mandatory accusations of being paid off by the oil industry, which is sadly for my own and dads sake, not the case.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Kim O'Hara » Thu Feb 06, 2014 10:41 pm

I've been time-poor (or engagement-rich - I guess that's the better way to think of it) for the last few days. I will be back with time to respond properly to a few posts when I can but meanwhile here's a climate animation for those who haven't seen one before. It's new - it runs right up to the end of last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaJJtS_WDmI
:namaste:
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Zhen Li » Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:09 pm

Doesn't tell you anything about whether AGW is a correct theory.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Kim O'Hara » Fri Feb 07, 2014 1:39 am

Zhen Li wrote:Doesn't tell you anything about whether AGW is a correct theory.

...but might encourage you to think about the need for an explanation, and the need to adapt to the changes regardless of the explanation.

:coffee:
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Zhen Li » Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:24 am

When did I ever deny that we will need to adapt to climatic fluxes?
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Kim O'Hara » Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:59 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Kim O'Hara wrote:That's certainly what we have been told to think ... but hold on a moment: who told us to think that?
Kim


It's obvious.

I think I may have clue about who told us to think that abandoning fossil fuels would destroy the world's economy. :tongue:
I found it on FB this morning.

18509_58135092787_7278.jpg
18509_58135092787_7278.jpg (58.35 KiB) Viewed 172 times


:spy:

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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Zhen Li » Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:14 pm

Solar power is a great idea. I knew a man whose hydro bill (i.e. electricity here is called hydro) was something like $15.00/month because he installed high efficiency insulation, windows, and doors, and solar panels.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Kim O'Hara » Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:20 pm

:twothumbsup:
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Malcolm » Mon Feb 10, 2014 12:01 am

Zhen Li wrote:Solar power is a great idea. I knew a man whose hydro bill (i.e. electricity here is called hydro) was something like $15.00/month because he installed high efficiency insulation, windows, and doors, and solar panels.


Of course it is a great idea. But it does not scale. Battery technology has not advanced in years. That said, it is perfectly reasonable for people to install their own panels and so. The only problem is that the panels themselves have a definite lifespan, 40 years at most. There are other problems too. For example, if you have trees in your yard, or life in places where there is possibility of hail and so on.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Zhen Li » Mon Feb 10, 2014 12:34 am

Yeah, it's not feasible for a government.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Kim O'Hara » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:30 am

Malcolm wrote:
Zhen Li wrote:Solar power is a great idea. I knew a man whose hydro bill (i.e. electricity here is called hydro) was something like $15.00/month because he installed high efficiency insulation, windows, and doors, and solar panels.


Of course it is a great idea. But it does not scale. Battery technology has not advanced in years. That said, it is perfectly reasonable for people to install their own panels and so. The only problem is that the panels themselves have a definite lifespan, 40 years at most. There are other problems too. For example, if you have trees in your yard, or life in places where there is possibility of hail and so on.

Hi, Malcolm,
Just quickly -
Battery technology: A rubbishy site but the best I could find quickly -
http://www.mpoweruk.com/timeline.htm wrote:1985 Curl, Kroto, Smalley - Buckminsterfullerenes
Skil - Cordless Power Tool
1980s Sealed VRLA Batteries Commercialised
1986 Ovshinsky - Nickel Metal Hydride Battery Developments
Binnig, Rohrer - Atomic Force Microscope
Hitachi - Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage
Bednorz, Müller - High Temperature Superconductors
Smith - Six Sigma Quality
Viterbi, Jacobs, Gilhousen - Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) Cellular Systems
1988 SCE - 40MWH Lead Acid Load Levelling Battery
Fan, Tai, Muller - Micro-Scale Electrostatic Motor, Micro-Electromechanical Systems (MEMS)
Fert, Grünberg GMR Giant MagnetoResistance
Chiariglione - Moving Pictures Experts Group (MPEG)
Lechleider, Cioffi - Broadband Communications, ADSL
1989 Berners-Lee - World Wide Web (WWW), HTML, HTTP, URL, Browser
Pons, Fleischmann - Cold Nuclear Fusion
Brown - Betavoltaic Nuclear Battery
Regenesys - Flow Battery
Bates - Thin Film Battery
Boeing - Stacked Semiconductor Photovoltaic Cell
Commercial Exploitation of the Internet, Email Services
1990 Emtage - Internet Search Engine
Sony - Lithium Secondary Cells Introduction
Nickel Metal Hydride Batteries Commercialisation
1990's New Market Demands
1991 Iijima - Carbon Nanotubes, Buckytubes
Grätzel - Photoelectrochemical Cell
Zimmermann - PGP Public Key Encryption
1992 Kordesch - Rechargeable Alkaline Manganese Battery
1993 Cooper - Zinc Air Batteries, Mechanical Charging
1994 Bellcore - Lithium Polymer Cells
PowerNet - 42 Volt Automotive Battery Standard
1995 Pouch Cell
Duracell, Intel - Smart Battery, SMBus
Energizer - On-Cell Fuel Gauge or Battery Tester
Bayliss - Clockwork Battery
1996 BMW - Flywheel Energy Storage Accident
Patterson - Power Cells
Poehler, Searson - All Plastic Battery
Brauschweig University - Solar Powered Aeroplane
1997 Hayes, Hills - Wireless LANs, Wi-Fi
Photovoltaic Modules Production
1998 NGK - 48MWH Sodium Sulphur Load Levelling Battery
CODATA - Readjusts Physical Constants
2000 Mills - Hydrino Hydride Battery
Tripathy - Flexible Polymer Solar Panels
2000's Market Trends
2001 Smalley - Nanowires
2002 Nanomaterials
ORNL - Thin Film Batteries
2003 Teeters, Korzhova, Fisher - Nanobattery
Zettl - Nano-Scale Electrostatic Motor, Nano-Electromechanical Systems(NEMS)
University of San Diego - "Smart Dust", Nano Robots, Nano Batteries
Regenesys - Cancelled
GVEA - 40 Megawatt Battery
Battery Sales Volumes
Partanen - Rechargeable Aluminium Air Battery
2004 Toshiba - Direct Methanol Fuel Cell
Intel - Itanium 2 Processor
2005 Ki Bang Lee - Urine Battery
Satoh - Organic Radical Battery
Armstrong - Biofuel Cell
van Hoof - Thermo-electric Generator Using Body Heat
2006 Kassakian, Schindall, Signorelli - Enhanced Double Layer Capacitors, Single Wall Carbon Nanotubes
2007 Jobs, Ive - Smartphone Internet Capable Phone
Hatazawa, Kano - Sugar Battery (Biofuel Cell)
2008 Johnson - JTEC Battery (Johnson Thermoelectric Energy Conversion) System


Lifespan of solar panels: Where do you get that 40-year figure from? They've only been around for about that long.
My sister-in-law bought panels second-hand from her early-adopter brother and they have been sitting in the tropical weather for thirty years to my certain knowledge and are still doing fine.

:namaste:
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Norwegian » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:52 am

Having worked in the solar industry myself, I can tell you that the general consensus for mass produced solar cells/panels (which is what you and I would purchase) is that they have a warranty for about 25 years or so. Actually I thought Malcolm's comment on 40 years sounded quite much. But, there are minor variations, and some individual standouts, so yes 30-40 years is possible. The technology is improving bit by bit, and thus also the longevity. But don't buy solar cells and expect them to last an entire lifetime. It just isn't realistic, they do degrade with time.

The sun contains an incredible amount of energy, but our solar technology so far is still too primitive.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby tellyontellyon » Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:57 am

Perhaps biotechnology could help. Plants/algae are very efficient at using solar energy.
“Don't you know that a midnight hour comes when everyone has to take off his mask? Do you think life always lets itself be trifled with? Do you think you can sneak off a little before midnight to escape this?”
― Søren Kierkegaard
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Zhen Li » Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:25 am

I don't think a figure of 40 years is anything to be up in arms about. After all, just about any power plant would be lucky to get past regulators running that long without major updates and replacements of key parts.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Kim O'Hara » Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:40 am

Zhen Li wrote:I don't think a figure of 40 years is anything to be up in arms about. After all, just about any power plant would be lucky to get past regulators running that long without major updates and replacements of key parts.

Hi, Zhen Li and Norwegian,
I am more curious than doubtful on this point. 40 years is okay - especially, as Zhen Li says, given the alternatives - but I can't see why 60 isn't realistic. After all, they are basically glass and we know glass windows can last a couple of centuries.
Has anyone in the industry done accelerated exposure testing? If so, what fails?

:reading:
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Zhen Li » Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:59 am

Oh I am sure they can make them very high quality. They have all sorts of different prices, I'd reckon the lower end ones aren't quite as durable.
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Re: Climate Change: We're Doomed

Postby Kim O'Hara » Mon Feb 10, 2014 4:04 am

Zhen Li wrote:Oh I am sure they can make them very high quality. They have all sorts of different prices, I'd reckon the lower end ones aren't quite as durable.

That's not an answer to my question - and it's guesswork, anyway.

:popcorn:
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